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Home Truths: “How Long is an Emergency? Routes into and out of homelessness in the Southwest”
November, 2024
Our fourth Home Truths paper examines routes into and out of emergency accommodation in the Southwest. It is based on analysis of Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage ‘Homeless Performance Reports’ since 2018.
The paper identifies lengthy periods of time stuck in emergency accommodation and slim chances of leaving emergency accommodation to housing tenancies. Strong links between the private rented sector and homelessness are also evident; the private rented sector is a common pathway into homelessness while simultaneously the door is closing on the private rented sector as an exit route from homelessness.
On the positive side, increases in alternative exit routes to the private rented sector, particularly Approved Housing Bodies, are evident, as are increases in the number of households prevented from having to enter emergency accommodation.
“I’ve been in and out (of homeless services) since I’m about 18. Every time I come into homelessness, I see the same people, in the same place, in the same boat, through 10 years. And they never had hope of ever getting a place. That's why I never had hope.”
– Scott
The private rented sector – a gateway to homelessness
- Over the 15 months from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, a notice of termination (NoT) from private rented accommodation was the most common reason for new households presenting to emergency accommodation in the Southwest, accounting for 36% of new household presentations during this time. The next most common reason was ‘family circumstances’ (mostly relationship breakdown) accounting for 28% of new presentations.
- One in four households new to emergency accommodation in the Southwest between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 had received a ‘no fault’ notice of termination from private rented accommodation.
- Among ‘no fault’ eviction notices that resulted in households presenting to emergency accommodation in the Southwest between Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, the main reason for the issuing of the eviction notice (accounted for almost 6 in 10 of these notices) was the intended sale of the property.
Stuck in emergency accommodation with slim chance of exit
- In the 2.5 years from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024, on average of 52% of households have been long-term homeless – they have been stuck in emergency accommodation for six months or more.
- In the same time period (Q1 2022 to Q2 2024, the exit rate from emergency accommodation to a tenancy has averaged 10%.
- While exits to tenancies have increased year-on-year for the last two full years (2022 and 2023), exits to tenancies have been lower in the last three years (2021-2023) compared to the three years prior (2018-2020).
Changing exit routes and the decline of the private rented sector as an exit
- The private rented sector was the main tenancy exit route from emergency accommodation in the Southwest between 2018 and 2020, before falling significantly. From Q1 2018 to Q4 2020, an average of 59 households per quarter exited to PR tenancies but between Q1 2021and Q2 2024 this fell to an average of just 18 households per quarter. Most recently, in Q2 2024, just 10 households exited to PR.
- Tenancy exits from emergency accommodation in the Southwest to Approved Housing Bodies have increased since Q1 2023 but have only partially filled the gap left by the decline in PR exits.
- Approved Housing Bodies and Local Authority lettings are now the more likely tenancy exit routes from emergency accommodation in the Southwest, and PR lettings are the least likely.
Prevention is better
- More households were prevented from entering emergency accommodation in the last three quarters (up to Q2 2024) compared to the seven quarters prior.
- The Cost Rental Tenant-in-Situ scheme, which offers protection to certain renters whose home is to be sold, is increasing preventions. 100 households were prevented from entering emergency accommodation in the Southwest in the first six months of 2024 (Q1 and Q2 2024).
The imbalanced flow between the private rented sector and homelessness
- In the 15 months from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, just five households per month exited emergency accommodation in the Southwest to private rented accommodation. But, during these 15 months, 10 households per month entered emergency accommodation in the Southwest following a ‘no fault’ eviction from private rented accommodation. For every one household that leaves emergency accommodation to a private rented tenancy, two more enter following a ‘no fault’ eviction from private rented accommodation.
- The numbers entering emergency accommodation in the Southwest from the PR sector would be higher again if not for the Tenant-in-Situ scheme. In the first six months of 2023, an average of 16 households per month were prevented from entering emergency accommodation through the scheme.
“I’ve been referred to a housing body. They’re willing to house me. I’m just waiting for it to come available. I can’t even explain how I feel really. Just delighted really. I’m just over the moon really. I’ll have my own space. Peace of mind. Try and get a bit of stability. My own quietness. The quiet!”
– Scott
